Posted: 6/22/2020 | June 22nd, 2020
If you’re like me, you might be wondering what the future of travel holds now that more countries are easing lockdowns and opening borders. I wrote about the future of travel back in March but, like everything COVID related, a lot has changed since then.
Lately, days feel like years and months feel like decades.
Given how much has changed — and how fast things are still changing — I want to revisit this topic.
There have been a plethora of articles lately about how destinations and companies will change and what travel will look like once we head out on the road again.
I agree with many of the points my colleagues make.
Yes, local/domestic travel will be big over the next few months as people forgo international/cross-border travel for travel within their own country. Yes, many countries will require a COVID test at the border or, at the very least, proof of a recent negative COVID test to enter. Yes, most companies will tout their cleaning policies more as a way to attract customers.
And, yes, the travel industry’s recovery will be slow as people cautiously head out into the world again.
But I think too many have blinders and are underestimating just how bad it’s going to be for the industry. They simply don’t want to see the ugly truth:
The sky is falling – and this industry is about to see a massive shakeup.
Because people make travel happen.
Without people, travel doesn’t exist.
And the more I talk to readers, friends, and other travelers, the more I realize people will not travel again in large numbers until there’s either a vaccine, treatment, or a decline in cases after reopening.
Humans are hardwired to minimize risk and uncertainty. We didn’t leave the cave after dark because of the danger out there. The night brought terrors and risks. That risk-reduction psychology has stayed with us through the millennia. It’s why we always go with the devil we know and stay in jobs we don’t love but are stable.
Humans always reduce risk.
So, even as countries open their borders, most people are taking a wait-and-see approach.
And I can see that not just through my interactions with friends and readers but through Google too. Even as parts of the world have started to reopen, this website has seen no increase in our search traffic. We rank for such a wide variety of keywords and often in the top 1-3 results that I can use my site’s traffic as a good barometer for general consumer sentiment. (TripAdvisor and Kayak have shown similar research too, though there are some sectors of the industry like RV travel that are booming.)
People walk before they run and they search for travel and begin to plan months in advance before actually booking it.
That means if people aren’t searching for travel now, they are unlikely to take a trip in the next few months.
That is not good news.
If companies talked to end consumers more, they would know this. Maybe they do. But their press statements suggest there is just a huge pent-up demand waiting for travel that will save the industry anytime now.
Yeah, people all want to travel. Just not anytime soon.
Twenty percent of people will go traveling the second they can and another twenty are so risk-averse they are probably going to wait for some vaccine.
Everyone else? They want to see what happens to the first 20%.
There are just so many unknowns.
Will you be quarantined? Will you pick COVID up and bring it home? What happens if you think you’re fine but end up sick, aren’t able to get home, and you’re now stuck somewhere for two weeks?
And what about the destination itself? will attractions be closed or restricted? Will some activities be canceled? Will transportation be limited? Will distancing regulations interfere with meals, transportation, tours, and other activities? Will you have to spend your vacation wearing a mask? What if others aren’t wearing a mask?
There are too many variables and people don’t want to spend their one big trip worrying all the time. Travel is supposed to be a relaxing escape.
It doesn’t matter what hygiene or social distancing measures countries, tour operators, or airlines take. In a recent poll, only 28% said open borders would make them feel safe. That’s the crowd that will travel. The rest are staying home.
Right now, most of the travel industry is relying on meager savings, government loans, and a lot of hope. The industry is in a severe depression right now with 60% of jobs lost. Things are bad. We’re all just hoping for some semblance of a summer travel season to get through the rest of the year and keep our businesses afloat.
But I think hope is going to smack into reality really soon when this travel season is a lot shorter than we imagined — and with a lot fewer people. While local travel will grow, there simply aren’t enough local tourists to make up for the missing international ones.
Plus, let’s not forget capacity restrictions.
How many hostels, hotels, or airlines can operate at 50% capacity? How big can Airbnb remain if no one wants to stay in other people’s homes? How many walking tour companies can be sustained by vastly fewer tourists?
I think this fall we’re going to see many tour operators, hostels, independent hotels, magazines, creators, and other businesses in this space go under. A bloodbath is coming. (And this site is not immune. We’re barely treading water. At our current spend, we’ll be bankrupt by Feb 2021 if something doesn’t change.)
But, while the job loss will be terrible, travel was in need of serious reform. It had simply grown too big. We were in a Gold Rush. From VC-backed startups to hostels to influencers to tour companies, there was just too much of everything. Overtourism was a huge problem. Destinations just weren’t built to handle so many people and the environmental impact from all this travel was staggering.
In my opinion, we were due for a realignment.
I want people to go explore the world but, if so many of us are going to do that, then we need to do so in a more sustainable and managed way.
We need to take a step back and say “Ok, how do we make this work for everyone involved?”
Many destinations will use this downtime to change their policies to ensure more sustainable numbers of visitors in the future. You can already see this happening in Venice, Amsterdam, Prague, and Barcelona.
Everyone can literally start from zero to create a more sustainable travel sector.
Will this mean it will be as easy to travel in the future as it was in the past? Maybe. Maybe not.
We should spread out our tourism more. Iceland is more than Reykjavik and the Blue Lagoon. Spain is more than Madrid and Barcelona. Venice isn’t big enough to handle all our numbers. Indonesia has over seventeen thousand islands. It’s not just Bali.
That might raise prices for some destinations but long before this boom in travel, there was budget travel. There have always been ways to save money on the road. There will still be ways to save money on the road when this is all over.
I’m not worried about travel becoming too expensive. Even if some places become less accessible (and, honestly, to protect places like the Galapagos, Everest, or the Machu Picchu, we should greatly reduce the numbers who go there), there’s still plenty of places in the world on a budget!
But that is a problem for later because, as the crowds grow slower than destinations and companies hope, by the time we have a conversation about what “the future” looks like, most travel companies will be out of business anyway.
What is coming is a seismic shift as large as when the Internet transformed how we book travel and get information.
And I don’t think we’re prepared for that.
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Chris
Great points, more on the pessimist side of things but certainly a very realistic outcome. I just want to add that there is a big question mark on how locals will interact with us travelers once we can go back in and Corona is still on everyone’s mind. It will probably take many months of no bad corona related news and super efficient and quick tests to overcome the general suspicious thoughts of foreign travelers who might bring in Corona.
Personally, I hope things will turn out in a way that not too many businesses have to shut down with tourism slowly picking up again now in certain regions.
We will have to wait and see!
Cheers,
Chris
Andrew
Matt, this is really excellent writing and I agree with your thoughts. I know I really miss traveling, and have already canceled several trips, with no serious thought of traveling anytime soon (especially internationally). This is a chance for a reboot and rethink on how to make travel better — more sustainable for the environment, for localities, for people. I’m afraid we’ll squander this chance.
Aleta
Thank you for the insight. As a long time traveller who has been so bummed to have my month of time off travel plans derailed by COVID I am definitely feeling the loss. I am trying to make the best of things and am focusing on camping and being outdoors in locations I can drive to. I booked a short hotel stay next month at a site that is not far from where I live which is known for quiet and relaxation. We will see how my first foray into the travel waters goes. However, given that so many on airplanes seem to be disregarding safety standards and it being an enclosed space where I can’t simply move if I don’t feel comfortable I think that it will be a long while before I fly again. I anticipate it will be over a year before I consider any travel that involves flight.
I hope the industry recovers, but I agree with your assessment that change is needed. I know that your site puts a lot more thought into things than many others and am looking forward to seeing you continue to produce great content.
Jonathan Goodman
I really love this Matt.
And I agree, a realignment was deeply needed. Like you, I like getting off of the beaten track. But there’s a big difference between tourists and travellers. And most of the travel was tourism before as the world opened up more and travel became easier.
Maybe it’ll revert back to actual travel. I hope it does 🙂
Erica
Thank you for your candor; it’s a relief to hear an industry insider speak openly about how dire things are. I hope we soon see more people having the courage to discuss these difficult realities so we can mourn together, support each other, and find new ways forward in a world that’s forever changed. I’m tired of the culture of denial.
Yami
Great article,
Yeah I’m a flight attendant and my airline is firing lots of people.
Let’s see how everything turns out.
Keep the positivity ??
June Wing
I’m sure a realignment is coming in the travel industry and while there will be a lot of collateral damage, I’m sure in many respects it will be for the best. But I do take issue with you putting too much weight on the lack of search traffic. For example, at the present moment in Canada, its not easy to even travel out of province let alone internationally. There are no flights available to Mexico for at least another week and presently most of the country is shut down so even if I could fly there now what would be the point. To say nothing of the strained medical resources. So what would be the point of travelling now? My daughter will be moving to Europe as soon as the borders are open so we are planning to join her in Europe for Christmas if at all possible. But with so much uncertainty as to what the world will look like in December what would be the point of planning a trip now. I will travel again but for now it will have to be more last minute travel than I have done in the past.
Anik N
I agree with this; all of my trip planning this year will be last minute, as I see what is going to re-open. I’ve been doing no online searching because I don’t want to get my hopes up, only to then be greatly disappointed.
NomadicMatt
The majority of people plan trips 3-6 months out so people would be searching now for fall travel. They tend to book between 2-3 months before they go. So I’m not saying people are looking to book but given the wide, wide, wide range of keywords we rank for, I think it’s a good barometer on where most people are at right now.
Though, given the uncertainty around COVID, I suspect the planning/booking cycle has greatly shrunk and people are only booking what’s coming in the next month or so.
Nancy Reed
I do not think you were being negative or pessimistic, you were being honest which is why I read your articles. We are here in our little bubbles and you are out there getting a better sampling. Also, many do not understand how much keyword ranking/SEO can be key indicators of what is ahead. We are being politically brainwashed and it is working. Case in point- you have COVID and you are OK. there is a very vulnerable population that really sadly needs to stay home but the rest should be out more. I have been to Mexico several times. Finally got COVID but from the strain I got, they told me it was not from Mexico. (I did not realize they can tell by what strain you get now) I think you are correct about people not traveling.
Jay
Hi Matt,
thank you for this wonderful article. We are a full-time-traveler couple, just for three years now. And we still travel – and I’m proud of that. I don’t back up when the world is listing to fear. I look at the same number worldwide and I still see nothing to concern about. I see the fear in the eye of business owners, I hear the fear of talking to locals, I smell the fear in abundant neighborhoods.
Now It’s not the time to back off, it is the time to keep going. I personally think that we are at the beginning of something new in the travel industry and that is more than just traveling. Long before COVID. It is a way to live differently. It’s not about vacation (like invade into Venice and Barcelona), it is to dive into the culture, make friends, learn and work from everywhere to everyone.
It’s not the government and not the media who decided for us to live in a world of fear. It’s our choice and we should choose wisely. And like Obi-Wan said: “Who is the more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him?”
What we need right now, are people like you, Matt, there are encouraging us to take a step into the unknown, travel with all the restrictions, and be realistic what’s out there.
And as Wayne Dyer said, “When we change the way we look at things, the things we look at change”
Enjoy the future, Jay
Greg
I think that quote you referenced at the end actually came from Ghandi
Hineata
Where are you managing to travel TO, at the moment, Jay? My understanding was that much of the world is closed right now. We can’t get out of New Zealand for Malaysia, even for a work contract. Do you simply mean you’re travelling around whatever country you found yourself in when COVID really ‘exploded’ ?
Pol
Never is a long time. It might take longer than expected but things will go back to normal. As long as people still interested in traveling (and that will rarely change) it will be ok.
We might have to wait until mid 2021 or even 2022 but things improve and this Covid19 will be somehow controlled.
Tiffany
I do believe in more sustainable tourism, and with reducing numbers of visitors in certain places. However I don’t think upping prices is the way to go. It is a totally unfair way to manage tourism. If only the rich few manage to see the beauties of this world, what sort of humans are we? In my mind applications & lucky draws would be the way to go. A bit like systems for watching certain highly sought after football matches or festivals and stuff. Things will never be more sustainable if it is always about the money: it encourages the consumerist society, this idea that we have to work more and more to get more and more stuff… 🙁
NomadicMatt
But expensive destinations already exist and prices are used to control places like the Galapagos from being overrun. Some places, due to their sensitivity, just have to have fewer people visit them.
Lydia S
When I was a kid, travel was very expensive (in fact, everything was very expensive, including electricals, clothes, household stuff and food. Sports and music were relatively cheap though), so people saved up for at least a year. No one had more than one holiday a year, and hardly anyone travelled long-haul. It was lovely being the only non-locals in French villages where we could join in local events etc and get to understand the culture and language.
Then package holidays began, travel costs came down, and people started ruining things. As much as I like being able to jump on a flight and go anywhere, at the same time I find it uncomfortable that I can do this at less than the cost of a return train ticket from my home in London to my family home 15 miles away.
I would be very happy going back to the old days where flights are expensive and I really have to consider where I wish to go, and how I get there. I think people would appreciate holidays a lot more.
Lydia S
I also hope that domestic travel will increase again. Brits used to stay in “bed & breakfasts” at the seaside. Many of these towns fell into a bad state after people started their cheap “England abroad” trips to Spain. The prices of these hotels then increased a lot due to low demand. I long for a regeneration of those towns and a renewed, thoughtful holiday industry. Having said that, I’m not a holiday person; I’m very much a traveller. Mainly a budget one, so I get a more authentic experience at my destination.
Fernando
As much as I’d like to think things (or at least some of the things you discuss) will evolve differently, I have to agree with most of what you say.
It’s hard to feel optimistic in the short- to mid-term, not when the world economy is about to experience the worst recession since WWII (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii).
Tourism just happens to be one of the industries that is taking the brunt first, for all the reasons you mention. But this crisis is just going to burn through every industry and bring about massive unemployment and bankruptcy across the board. It’s tough to even contemplate or type this, but it’s just not looking good.
Personally, I can only dread the consequences this is very likely to have on my line of work, travel photography. Like you say, it’s going to be a while before most people are willing, or can afford, to travel anywhere but locally. Maybe that will somehow trigger an increase in the demand for imagery from far away places (“if we can’t go now, let’s at least be inspired, dream of going there, or even start making plans for when we can”), but I’m not holding my breath on this.
On a more optimistic note, I do agree we were long due for a realignment, and maybe this will give some of the most over-touristed (and polluted) places a chance to rethink their strategies. That’s of course easier said than done when you’re talking about prime tourist destinations like Bali, Thailand or even my own country, Spain. But things need to change. The problem is, as you point out, that many businesses, and whole local tourism industries, may not survive long enough to be part of that change or benefit from it.
Again I have to agree with your thoughts on over-tourism. Once things go back to whatever becomes the new normal, there will still be a myriad of destinations worth visiting outside the main ones. A ton of people have visited Bali, Java or Komodo, but never even contemplated going to East Nusa Tenggara, Sumatra and other more far-flung corners of Indonesia. The same goes for every country I know of, especially for the larger and more culturally and geographically diverse ones. There’s a lot places and experiences for us to discover!
Time will tell. The only thing that’s for sure is that there are millions of us that can’t wait to start traveling again, as soon as it feels safe enough to do so.
Jennifer
Surprising that you recommend after this whole article preaching about how local businesses may go under booking travel with a website like booking.com. Using an OTA is in no way helping any of the small businesses that are really struggling, as it is an aggregator with a “help desk”. There is also no vetting process and no one to be able to jump in and help if plans change, getting cancellation policies adjusted etc, as travel advisors and smaller companies have been needing to do in droves. If you are going to have this outlook and platform, it would be beneficial if you think a bit more about how you recommend people book their travel to support local tourism, to help sustain the industry in the long term.
Jane M.
Matt, I want to say thank you to you and your staff for continuing to support all of us who have chronic wanderlust. I get SO many emails in my inbox, but always make time to read yours. The love of travel is not going away! I had planned to go to Europe this summer, but will hopefully be doing a US road trip instead. There are so many wonderful places to see right here in our own country, as you yourself must be discovering as you make your way to Boston. I still desperately want to visit Europe, Asia and other destinations, and will do so when it’s relatively safe again. I am so sorry about the damage the pandemic is doing to the tourism industry in general, and to your business in particular. But you are all hardworking, clever people, and I am confident you will adapt and survive. For me personally, I have joined a network of women travelers and am looking into starting up a side business leading local tours and experiences for visitors to my area. I’ve also joined several Meetup groups with people who want to travel affordably and put together group tours. The world is still out there, there are so many wonderful places to see, and nothing broadens our experience like travel. I hope you all stay well and ride out the storm, and I wish you better days ahead.
NomadicMatt
Thanks for always reading my emails and taking the time out to comment!
Catherine
I can tell you I haven’t been searching out NEW travel much: I had two trips planned that are now being postponed to next year – I hope! So I don’t have to research anything new for a while.
Other than alternatives if I can’t go through with original plans, that is.
Scott Crosby
Hey Matt,
Long time follower and big time traveler (55 + countries visited) and I agree that a major shift in travel is upon us.
But it’s not what you are thinking because it’s a much bigger trip than you are imagining. It is a trip which is in store for those of us who are believers and followers of the Lord Jesus. I truly believe that we soon will be raptured up to heaven to be with Jesus before his returning to planet earth.
The Coronavirus and unchecked rioting we see now are merely the events that are foreshadowing the things that will soon be upon us. You can still get a ticket to heaven by asking Jesus to forgive your sins. But don’t wait too long because you will not like it here once us believers have been raptured.
God loves you and He wants you to be safe in heaven. Amen?
NomadicMatt
Thanks for the offer but I am going to pass on that. Have fun though!
Thomas Blaser
Hey Matt, your assessments are very realistic. I red your article from March and it happend exactly like you wrote.
We are some of the few backpackers which are still travelling. (On our worldtrip since 14 months)
We spent March until June in the USA. We campt on BLM land and we could snitch in some nice national parks. (Visited Grand Canyon, Sequoia, Mighty 5, Saguaro, Maroon Bells, …)
Since mid June we are in Mexico. And we could experiance the change of the people. During the first days the people were very happy to see us. They were hoping that everything will be the same like before.
But after almost one month, we can see the desperation of the people. Hotels are mostly empty. Often we are the only people in the restaurants. Just 2 buses per day from PDC to Tulum. Mayan sites and public beaches still closed….
Of course there are also advantages. We were the only people diving in the cenotes. We got some good deals. But this time is just for hardcore travellers. It’s no longer the same experiance.
We are thinking to go back to Europe and finish our trip. It’s just too frustrating and difficult to travel.
Maybe it’s also a chance to discover new things in our lives…
I think it will take at least 5-10 years until the world has recovered. We will see…
Safe travels!
Céline and Thomas
Diana
Thanks for your comments, Matt! I agree that travel will be different, but maybe this is needed since as you and others have said so many places are over crowded.
I have been a life long traveler having lived or traveled to many different places in this world. We retired early to really kick up our travel plans, which now has been slowed down. We bought an RV last year to travel around the USA part time while also doing our normal one to two international trips. So now our focus will just be RV travel until we can safely do other trips. Would love any recommendations on RV groups that we can learn from since that will be our focus for this year.
We live near the beach in St. Petersburg, Florida, where if it weren’t for masks and places closing down again because people not social distancing or not wearing masks you would think everything is back to normal. Beach hotels and condos are busy with local travelers and people brave enough to get on planes. Our economy has been hurt tremendously with hotels, restaurants and beaches closing during the prime Spring break time. Now they may have opened up too quickly with few restrictions. Local areas are now implementing face mask laws to slow the spread of COVID. Many of us locals look to get away from the crowds when it gets too busy here. So we are getting ready to head further North with the RV and explore some new areas.
Cheers and stay safe!
NomadicMatt
RV travel is the way to go this year! Have fun!
Marian Marbury
Good article. To add my own pessimistic slant, I’m afraid it isn’t just that businesses will disappear. Its that small businesses, such as the owner-managed hostel and the owner-guide tour company that will go out of business. The bigger companies, with their access to more capital and their less sustainable practices, will come thru this. Eventually new companies will rise again and hopefully we’ll be less destructive in our travel but the future, yes, appears grim.
john miller
I’m surprised some one who travels so much has such a small mind on this. Where some see disaster others see adventure. These next 2 years will be the time to travel. No crowds, line ups and business begging one to travel. I smell opportunity. Sit on the sidelines if you will, similar pandemics in 1958 and 1968 didn’t stop people nor did the post WWII era.
Clazz
How do you expect businesses to survive with the “no crowds”? That’s the point.
NomadicMatt
“Small mind”, huh? Great way to start a conversation John!
Karen
The vaccine will probably be available during 2021 and people will travel again! I think this is just momentary.
JB
That’s what I was hoping for too but it looks more like wishful thinking now. Apparently, the fastest vaccine ever to be developed was for mumps. It took 4 years.
“More than 30 years after scientists isolated HIV, the virus that causes Aids, we have no vaccine. The dengue fever virus was identified in 1943, but the first vaccine was approved only last year, and even then amid concerns it made the infection worse in some people. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps. It took four years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine
Julie L
Oh man I feel this so hard. Traveling is my absolute favorite pastime-don’t even mind flying coach by a squeaky bathroom door if it means I’m going somewhere amazing! I have had my scuba diving trip to Bonaire and my hiking trip to Colorado cancelled this year. I’m pretty sad about it and like you, concerned that it may be YEARS before travel will be the same. I know for one I have been on several trips with a mild cold or cough before and now I guess that era is over! Don’t want to be burned at the stake for a cold….I just really hope for a vaccine soon-I miss my life.
David Aneja
Nice blog matt! I really liked your thoughts on it and yeah we should not forget that there is a day after night and it can happen anytime soon so by keeping our hopes high and being optimistic, travel will not that much far for us.
Love from India! Stay Safe Mate!
Susanne
Do your due diligence on the efficacy of virus vaccines in general. I wouldn’t postpone a good time counting on the reliability of what the scientific world claims is an effective vaccine. Take your yearly flu vaccine for example — it’s ineffective much of the time due to the difference in strains. And the one time I got a pneumonia vaccine, I got pneumonia that season and it was BAD. Anyway, I know people must do what they feel safe to do. If this virus doesn’t kill you, something else will; even a different virus. Happy trails! Because our trail time remaining gets shorter and shorter anyway.
Colin A.
Great Info Matt!,
Sadly, I’m truly scared for the future of the travel industry. Things will hopefully get back to normal once a vaccine is produced, but until then, the coming months are looking pretty bleak. But time heals all wounds, and I’m sure the industry will bounce back stronger than ever, we just have to be patient.
Thanks, and stay safe!
Peter
Sadly, I have to agree with what you say.
That’s exactly what is happening and what will happen in the near future.
The outcome, in the end, will be a better world, many more destinations without crowds and REAL experiences to places that are maybe just a few miles away.
Every bad episode in History has bounced back with much better options, albeit the pain we had to go through.
Bob
Sadly, I have to agree that too much of what you say might be true.
But (as someone who does short international trips every year and comes from a country that receives short visas), I think it’s not the hygiene or state of disease or social distancing or any of the other risks that’s going to stop us. It’s going to be time. How many of us can afford 30 days of quarantine (or even 15 days, if my visa is valid only for 15 days)? I fear that travelling for pleasure/holidays will take a back seat.
And if travel gets more expensive, even if it is to limit the number of people/protect a place, that will take travel back to a time when it was accessible only to the privileged. What as absolute shame that will be.
Ashley
Just out of curiosity, when do you think you’ll be ready to venture overseas?
NomadicMatt
I’m eyeing October/November right now.
Cameron
Well said! I couldn’t agree more with you. It feels a bit like a toss up on whether the new face of travel will be sustainable. Sustainable travel as a whole costs more on average and with the current economic trends travelers will have less to spend. I remain optimistic, but who knows.
Frank
Agree with everything you say.
We’ve spent the last 3 months in lockdown in Leon, Spain. Over the last several week we’ve been finally allowed out for unrestricted exercise time. You can see the writing on the wall here – seems that every 2nd or 3rd building suddenly has a for rent or for sale sign. There’s no way all the bars and restaurants here will survive. And the people that ARE out drinking are the young ones…
We can also expect surprises when booking overseas flights. 3 weeks ago we looked at flying back to Canada and were reassured to see that Air Transat (which is lots cheaper than the flag carriers) were resuming flights between Canada and Spain on July 3rd. 2 weeks later I went to book…and saw the schedule had changed. No Air Transat flights to Spain until December according to their site. Ended up having to book Air France at double the price. Really, was quite surprised at the few options available. I think we can look forward to less flights and higher prices…ie. as it used to be prior to high volumes and competition.
We’ve been full-time travellers for 6 years and this is the year we’re looking to get our Visa and settle in Spain. Perfect time too, because it won’t be the same. We’ll do do regional travel on Ryanair etc (that shouldn’t change) but the long-haul market will. Yesterday Air France grounded their Airbus 380s after Emirates did the same.
I think there are going to be silver linings and for some people it will be a good time to travel. But cheap vacations won’t be an option for everyone anymore. And never mind the toll it will take on places reliant on tourism…
HJC
We packed up, masked up and ventured to USVI, which was open to Tourism since June 1. Although more exposed to States with peak numbers, we made the journey from California. Between the plane ride(s), locals here and tourists coming in, everyone was very respectful, judgment free and WORE THEIR MASKS when entering/leaving restaurants, bars, confined spaces and inside stores. It’s been a great vacation even during the middle of the crisis.
Hui
Hey Matt, thanks for writing your views here honestly for us to have an open discussion and try to see what lies ahead, and thanks for sharing some insights based on the aggregate data that you can pull from your website.
Your insights are sharp, I think it is true that there will be an early 20% who will take the risk of traveling, and they will likely be young, and the rest will absolutely want to see what happens to the first 20%. I know I will be in the latter group.
My opinion is that the first 20% will end up finding travel more trouble than it’s worth, just to end up in a place and worrying about what restrictions there would be. I already encounter this daily in my own country (Singapore), and I encountered it early on in the pandemic when traveling in Bangkok, the 2nd country outside of China in SEA with the pandemic. It was not fun to travel with fear and restrictions.
I was worried about not being able to take my flight if I should catch any symptoms, this then made me worried about the people at the rural rock climbing camp I was in who were running a fever, everyone in the streets looked wary of foreigners (and this was Thailand mind you! With the friendliest people ever. They were still very kind and helpful, but you could see wariness in their eyes), local street pedlars were touting masks, and worried about my travel insurance covering me if I were to fall ill.
I’ve been traveling long term in Europe since last June, got 6 months in before the virus exploded early in Asia, and have been at home since. Thanks again for helping us all figure out how to make sense of this mess.
Samuel
Interestingly enough, here in Florida. We are now the epicenter of Coronavirus and we have people still traveling from other States for vacation. They even opened Disney World! Even though cases are skyrocketing. There are a few that will not let this pandemic deter them from moving freely. That’s likely the minority and not the majority of people. The travel and tourism industry is doing everything to save its economy in Florida. Hopefully they employ safe practices while doing it.
Sarah
There are two perspective that I have yet to read in the comments above (and please correct me if it’s buried somewhere in the replies).
First, I have yet to see anyone acknowledge that as a traveler or tourist, you are a vector for this illness. When you start traveling, especially to less accessible and underresourced destination, you risk bringing coronavirus to a place that may not have the capacity to manage an outbreak. If one considers the origins of the outbreak, travel was a catalyst for its rapid spread. In that light, the notion to travel amid a pandemic strikes me as socially irresponsible and entitled. Most self-acclaimed traveler are those that come from relatively affluent nations and often like to travel ‘off the grid’. These ‘off the grid’ destinations rarely have the health care infrastructure to manage their own health care needs, much provide care to an influx of travelers. Which leads me to my second point…
Second, if someone becomes ill while abroad (hard to believe that could have to a 20-40 something year old traveler that sees themselves as invincible), whose responsibility is it to provide and pay for the medical care or the transport costs to bring them back home. Is it the host countries duty to provide care? What if they are already functioning over capacity? Is it your insurance companies? Mm, I have a feeling these companies may be rethinking their policies in relation to coronavirus. Should your country help out? Is it your own responsibility to pay your way? I seriously doubt many people know the cost of a two month ICU stay or for the medical transport of a patient requiring a ventilatator.
When people talk about sustainable travel, most individuals see a clawback in the number of ‘tourists’ but fail to see themselves included in that categorization. Even in these comments, it seems a lot of commenters fail to see themselves as part of the problem (myself included). I would strongly recommend a bit of introspection prior to booking your next trip and consider the implications of your travel on others.
Ann
Vaccines are coming; it won’t be that long in the grand scheme. And they won’t need to be perfectly effective. People will be able to return to mostly typical routines, including travel and vacations.
The economy is another matter…probably some big ups and downs in the big picture and a lot of hurt for many of us average joes. But I hope that we’ll learn from this, so that years down the road, when MERS mutates and become more infectious, the next generation will be prepared. In the meantime, I fully expect to travel again, just not that soon.
papa
The economy is another matter…probably some big ups and downs in the big picture and a lot of hurt for many of us average joes. But I hope that we’ll learn from this, so that years down the road,
Ine
Well said, but also a little bit pessimistic. I can’t wait for travel to open up again, and I’ll be the first one to hop on a flight. People are becoming covid-exhausted. I think many of us will live life even more to the fullest once opened up. Just because this year made us realize that anything can happen and take everything away.