Posted: 03/31/20 | March 21st, 2020
On a breezy fall morning, I was walking home from my university’s humanities department after trying to get out of my Spanish language requirement to no avail. On the way, I ran into one of my roommates. He mentioned he had heard that a small plane had crashed into the World Trade Center.
By the time I got home and turned on the TV, both towers were on fire and it was clear this was much more than a small plane gone off course.
In the days and weeks following September 11th, the world changed. Even to my young self, I could feel in my bones that nothing would ever be the same again. There was a pre-9/11 world and we were now forever in a post-9/11 world.
While the later 2008 financial crisis changed the economy and our views on money, 9/11 seemed to change who we fundamentally were as people. It created a shift in thinking and our sense of self. It changed how we Americans viewed the world. There was a “lost innocence.”
As the Coronavirus has rapidly unfolded in the last month, I feel that way again, except this time on a global scale. There was a pre-Coronavirus world and now we will forever be in a post-Coronavirus world.
From how we work, travel, view government, money, and conduct our day-to-day lives, everything is going to be different. And the longer the crisis lasts, the more different it will be. I can’t say just how yet (I’m a bad futurist) but, in my gut, I know change is coming.
But let’s talk about something I do know a bit about: the travel industry.
How is this going to change travel?
The travel industry relies on human movement to function. And, with countrywide lockdowns and most major airlines ceasing operations, no one is moving right now.
Overnight, an industry that employs 10% of the world has come to a near-complete stop.
This is worse than a recession. Because, even in a recession, some people still traveling.
Now no one is moving. The industry is in stasis.
And no one knows how long this is going to last.
Hubei province, the site of the outbreak in China, was in lockdown for over two months. Singapore has increased restrictions on foreigners and Hong Kong, reeling from a recent spike in infections, has relocked down the city.
And I think that the slow pace of such measures in many countries means most of the world will be in lockdown until May if not early June. Too many people are behind the curve and it will take longer to keep the virus under control than most people think.
So what does this mean for the industry I’ve spent the last twelve years in?
As a whole, I think we’re looking at a drastically smaller travel industry for the foreseeable future. WTTC states that they expect 75 million job loses (at a rate of up to 1 million jobs lost per day).
And it will take years for the industry – and the jobs – to return to pre-Coronavirus levels.
For starters, I don’t think many magazines and online publications will make it through. The 2008 financial crisis shuttered the doors of a lot of publications and those around today live off advertising, brand deals, and events. Ad rates are plummeting as traffic plummets and most brand deals are on hold for now.
With publications furloughing employees, cutting salaries, and seeing revenue decline, I think you’ll see at least 25% of publications go under. This is an existential crisis for travel publications. I know four that closed last week. More will come. And those that survive will be smaller and be able to hire few writers.
Additionally, a lot of creators, YouTubers, freelance writers, and bloggers rely on brand partnerships for revenue. The freelance writing market is not a land of riches and, with the majority of writers and online content creators living on thin margins and paycheck to paycheck, the prospect of months of zero income is going to drive people out of the industry. I know a few already looking for the exit. I think 30-40% of people might end up leaving if the industry remains frozen to June.
Moreover, I think many hostels, travel start-ups, and small tour operators will go under too. Most small businesses operate with the tiniest of margins and don’t have a lot of liquidity. They keep enough cash on hand to get by without income for just a few weeks. A sustained shock to their business like this, even with government assistance, is going to bankrupt them. They have too much overhead and costs to sustain them. Many will fold and, when you travel again, you will see fewer hostels, food and walking tour companies, and small tour operators.
I expect it to take years for the travel industry to recover. People will slowly start booking travel again but, like the 2008 crisis, it is going to leave many unemployed. When you don’t have a job, travel is not a priority. It is luxury people will put off.
I think as the world opens up a bit around the end of May/early June (provided there’s no second spike in infections), people will begin to start booking travel again for later in the summer. Business travel will pick up first but I think most of the tourism you’ll see initially will be local. People will travel around their region before they start taking big international trips again (I don’t think large scale international travel will happen until late this year).
First, because it’s cheaper. This pandemic is going to cause a huge recession and massive job losses. Since travel is a luxury, big international trips won’t be on the agenda. Second, people will be wary of the risk of another potential outbreak. They will be concerned about picking up the virus as well as being stuck if something happens. Until everyone is 100% sure they are fine, people will be cautious.
And the cruise industry? Well, ships are floating petri dishes and, no matter how good the deals, most people won’t want to get on a ship for the foreseeable future. I believe this will permanently shrink the cruise industry. Images of cruise ships unable to dock in countries will scar our psyche for years to come.
Additionally, I think countries are going to be wary about fully opening up until they know they won’t be importing the virus and there’s some treatment or vaccine. No one wants to open their borders and have a second wave of infections that overloads their healthcare system. I wouldn’t be surprised if you start to see more temperature checks in airports and if countries start asking for proof you are COVID-19 negative.
While you will probably see a lot of travel deals as companies try to cover their costs and stay afloat, I think the whole “hop on the plane and travel” thing is going to be a lot harder until we reach a point where we have a treatment regime and vaccine for this virus.
But, maybe, the silver lining (and I always try to look for one) is that this will lead to more sustainable tourism as countries try to reduce crowds in hopes of keeping the virus in check.
Maybe this is the end of overtourism.
Whatever happens, travel is going to be a very different and smaller industry in the post-Coronavirus world.
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Anna
I wholeheartedly agree with most of what you said – it will be tough to recover from especially since June is an optimistic version of events, but it could be a good thing as many “content factory blogs” will die a natural death.
A few things though: you said people won’t want to get on a ship for the foreseeable future… that’s not what I’m seeing especially among those with families and older folks. They’re dying to go back on a cruise – you hear them talking about it, see it in mom groups. This won’t die so easily.
Belle
What people say and what they do are not the same. A lot might be longing to get back on the ship but when the time comes, they won’t do so for various reasons e.g. flashback to unpleasant incident, fear/paranoia, etc. I own a private wellness company and a boutique. You won’t believe how many wellness clients swear they’ll take a fitness class, workout more, eat better and so on but don’t. The same with my boutique clients. Many will plead for me to bring in specific pieces that’s trendy and swear they’ll buy it. Guess what? Many don’t lol. I’ve learned as an entrepreneur/business owner that what people say they want doesn’t always align with what they do? So, I’m with Matt that cruise industry will take a beating and it’ll take a while to get it back to the numbers it used to be. There’ll get there but it’ll take a lot.
Jaco Prinsloo
Hi Matt. Thanks for your insights, some sobering thoughts here. It’s clear that the travel industry will never be the same after this. I wonder if the more budget friendly destinations and activities will benefit in the short to medium term, once the borders are reopened. Here in the Eastern Cape in South Africa there is quite a strong focus on sustainable and community-focused tourism, so I’m holding thumbs that your predictions hold true! Keep safe
Sarah
Hated this post. What is the point of it? It’s just a doomsday message. Gloomy and dull. You have nothing to offer than a doomsday statement of what is happening right now. The only good thing is the note about sustainable tourism. I’d revise if I was you.
Belle
Your comment is outlandish. Do you expect everything to be cheery and rosy? The post reflects the reality of what’s going on today. So, it’s outlandish to shrug it off as a doomsday message. Clearly, you’ve never heard a real doomsday message because this is not it ?
Christa
I have to say this was exactly how I felt after reading it as well. There are a million different types of people in the world, and of course we all see things differently and know what works for us and what doesn’t! It all comes down in my opinion to how we handle what happens to us in this life. We cannot control this virus, it is happening. But that does not mean that we have to look at everything in a negative light. It has nothing to do with “everything looking rosy all the time” either. It has to do with wanting and needing to see hopefulness (especially during this time, it is when it is needed the most!)
Sarah
I saw you deleted my comment but I think if anything people will have more love for travel than ever before. Your blog comes from a place of fear and not adventure as the person you claim to be.
NomadicMatt
Your comment is still above. I haven’t deleted anything!
Zandiee
Sarah Matt is an adventure at heart and he himself when all this was going on said to still go out there and travel with precautions of course but to still get out and after that advice he then contracted the Coronavirus so I don’t think he is coming from a place of fear but rather FACTS.
His adventure self wanted to still go & when he did he contracted the Virus so he is definitely just giving us a whole perspective on this.
Emily
Hello Matt,
Thank you for the article. It addresses a lot of topics and concerns I have around the effects this will have on the travel industry. My livelihood is also very dependent on tourism as I work seasonally in Alaska. Something I was wondering about was if anyone predicts a significant increase in violence? Sadly, this pandemic is going to leave many people in very desperate situations. Many millions of people struggle to get by even on a good day. Just curious on people’s thoughts on this.
Charlie
I would say it will lead to an increase in violence And the worst aspects of human nature along with an increase in humane values, hopefully. Things are shifting in all realms. Hopefully the Almighty will be merciful to us all
Sebrin
This left me with a lot of food for thought and I agree with a lot of your thoughts and predictions.
I’m very curious about our Potential sustainable tourism “Boom” and how we as bloggers might need to change the message.
Sure everyone CAN travel, but should they? We want to teach everyone how to travel, but isn’t it our responsibility to not harm the world with over tourism as well?
This situation might be a good opportunity to tweak our message. Everyone SHOULD travel, but how, when and doing so responsibly from now on.
Charlie
Hey , Matt:
Can you speak as to whether travel will be more expensive? Much more complicated? People who love to travel will face what?
jon
will be a damn bargain..lol
simon
yes, Id like to know more as well,do you think maj.airlines will SHRINK the seat width to 6 inches?..(thats in first class)
NomadicMatt
There’s going to be a lot of deals coming out as companies try to get some money back!
Zandiee
This post is excellent & very informative. I don’t think many will move or go overseas this year 2020 and will look into it in 2021 but I feel bad for Italy which will take them years to recover as the # of deaths due to CoronaVirus create a stigma and even if everything clears out people will still be hesitant to go. At least the tourists will, us travelers will go as things are cleared out because that is just what we do.
What is your opinion about the massive travel bloggers we have now?
Sherri
Thanks for your perspective Matt.
I do have to say, the 1918 pandemic was MUCH worse than this one and social distancing measures were put into place then to flatten the curve (although they didn’t call it that). So humans have short memories! Acting like we have never seen anything like this and never will again- when a lot of us living have grandparents that lived through this. We are not talking ancient history. Of course, people didn’t travel as much for leisure a century ago, so society didn’t have travel blogs and small tour companies to go under, like today.
Also, when things are down, people remember the down times. And when things are up, people project a cheery future. Prior to this virus, as in, 1 month ago in the states- real estate was booming. Homes having multiple offers within 1 week of being listed. The same thing that was happening just 13 years ago! Prior to the last recession.
Did the real estate industry change after the great recession of 2008? Of course not! We had a short (but deep) recession and then people went back to being people, and eager to get into a home they love.
This pandemic will not have society having any great long lasting effects. Other than being stuck at home, it’s not having any effect now. As soon as we were all told not to come into work, people starting just hanging outside in big groups, as if everyday were a weekend – drum circles, picnics with friends (I was horrified). Now the parks are shut too, so that is not happening.
Not all travel bloggers will continue. The good and creative ones will. You will! Not every restaurant will survive, and that is sad. But people will be eager to get out to eat and drink and they won’t hesitate spending money to do it, even if they don’t really have the money.
And sure, it will take a year or two before international travel picks up. But the economy will rebound. People’s desire to see the world will be indulged and in 5 years, people will be saying Corona who?
Mat
Thanks for this, Sherri. I couldn’t agree more with your observations. And this is even worse – because literally nothing will change in the world, besides lots of good businesses and great people will go down in few months unfortunately, not having any income to survive.. That’s the saddest part. People never learn, even in the worst circumstances.
Bartrum
I think another change that might happen is less use of websites like Expedia and Priceline because as I have found out the hard way that it is more difficult to get a refund going through a 3rd party than if you just dealt directly with the airlines or hotels.
NomadicMatt
Yes, it’s rare you should book via a third party because when things go wrong, they offer terrible customer service!
Rick
FYI, I had no problem getting a credit (tho not a cash refund) from Orbitz.
John
It’s true that Covid19 has affected the tourism industry across the globe & people will still be scared for some time when all of this pandemic is over. I believe that the governments won’t allow foreign visitors for some time, a similar action has been recently taken by the Japanese government restricting visitors from over 70 countries for an indefinite time. Let’s just pray & hope all of this is over soon. I also work as freelance tourist guide and our community is really worried about the coming (at least) 6 months.
Elita
I wish everyone stays safe from this dangerous virus and the affected people will get cured soon.
Katie
I’ve been having 2 major thoughts on this. First, while some travel may open up this summer, with the expected potential second surge of the virus in the fall, I think it may be short-lived. I’ve already mentally prepared myself to not be able to take trips I have planned for over Thanksgiving and New Years and I have no plans to do the trip I had been planning for early July.
Second, as you alluded to, I think countries will get tougher about who they allow in. I’ve been thinking it could be similar to the countries that currently require proof of a yellow fever vaccination – once a vaccine becomes available (likely not until next year at the earliest), you may need to prove you’ve been vaccinated. With the outbreak in the US growing so rapidly and frankly, with how horrendously our federal government has handled it, I wouldn’t be surprised if countries refuse to allow Americans back in for a while – especially because we likely would not be in a position any time soon to be able to offer a certificate of proof of being negative. I hope that’s not the case, but it could happen.
Nina Green
I so agree with your points. Sad to see that hostels and great bnb’s that thrive off tourism may be the first to go. Your article is well-said.
NomadicMatt
Thank you! 🙂
sabrina
I have mentally prepared myself for not being about to travel this year although I am hopeful this virus can be contained soon. However, as soon as it is safe to travel again I will definitely be out there supporting the tourism industry. Travel has always felt special to me but the next trip I go on will feel extra special.
Stephanie
Sobering but reality. Probably not what many want to hear. There’s the pre-covid world, and the post. I have a deep sense that a lot of things are going to change too and there’s a strong possibility we’ll still be on lockdown by June. If this has taught us anything, it’s that nothing is for certain. Then we have to worry about a second wave. Until a vaccine or cure is developed, all aspects of our economy especially the travel and hospitality industry will continue to struggle.
NomadicMatt
I agree 100%!
Ravi
Yeah… it has more chances that airport security will ask you the proof of COVID-19. People wouldn’t come out of their houses until they assure that COVID19 is gone fully. One of my friend employee of RajasthanCarsTravel has the same opinion as he mentioned that the outbreak of coronavirus has up many jobs at risk and took many jobs already.
Faith
I know things look dark at this time and some months in the future. I believe the travel industry will start in a direction of normal (it may take some time). People are continually booking travel. I had a number of travel/vacations planned this year. Some of the travel I delayed and still hope to visit the places I reserved. I have spoken with Vacation Specialist and some of them shared that people have booked for 2021 and some of 2022. A number of industries are hurting right not and that is how it is with corona-virus. When everything is clear, I will continue to travel. We have to be positive and hope that life will get back to normal.
Anthony
Travelers may force airlines to re-think the cramped seating on aircraft. The trend to add more and more seats may have come to an end. That will, of course, result in higher airfares – but it would probably be worth it in the long run.
Nat
I agree! I have always been willing to pay more for a comfortable seat, even though I am a budget traveler. The seating situation has become absolutely absurd.
Alexandre
Mostly agree with the starting post. This will be a much smaller industry. Scores of small independent undercapitalized lodging (especially Airbnb), food establishments, budget/charter airlines, and tour operators will go under. Major international chains will largely survive, but shrink to major cities where the business travel and economy of scale would provide enough support.
Visas would be harder, longer, and more involving and expensive to get. Health documentation and checks to get the visas, on arrival/return, and quarantines of travelers on arrival or return would be common.
As the result of all the above, much of cheap mass-market travel would cease, ending the “overtourism” problem.
Those who have substantial financial resources and determination to travel will still find a way, as they did in earlier era before the jet age.
Nora
As usual, I appreciate your perspective, and I think for the most part you’re on the mark. Though I do think you’re being outrageously optimistic about lockdowns being done by late May/early June, and travel recommencing by late summer.
Here in Toronto, we’re being told that a “best case scenario” will see us in lockdown until early July, with only incremental eases on restrictions over many months to follow. I’m not confident the US/Canada border will open (for recreational travelers) at all this year, or at least until there is a vaccine. I truly hope that’s an overestimation on my part, for both personal as well as professional reasons.
NomadicMatt
You could be right. It’s really hard to say but I’m forever the optimist! I hope it doesn’t go until July.
Siobhán
I also agree with most of what Matt’s posted, except that I feel it’s a bit optimistic time-wise as well. In Australia, we are being told by the Government that interstate borders may take a long while to open and that once they do, people should be focussed on domestic travel for the next two years, with international travel not being likely for another two years… I can’t see how borders can start re-opening before there’s a vaccine.
Ann
I can see pre-testing for transmittable diseases becoming a prerequisite for a travel visa in the future. I think then end of over-tourism a positive thing and cruise ships are an environmental scourge. It’s unfortunate that so many will suffer as a direct and indirect result of this pandemic but humans have been heading too close to the wind for too long disregarding the laws of nature, and the travel industry is no exception. I hope future changes will be positive for travel and the world in general.
Nate
Ann, this is very true. We need to have more respect for nature, and adopt slower, more minimal lifestyles.
May
Hi Matt,
I think there will be more check-ups. With the 9/11, one is not able anymore to bring liquids and your own favourite “massive” tooth paste tube, and all those stuff has to be shrinked to smaller sizes….., and they are more expensive too!, luckily hostels, capsule hotels and mid range hotels are providing all those basics and IT gadgets, like cables, chargers etc included.
We may need to carry a medical letter (or similar), that we have not had contagious illnesses in the past. Its not anymore based on your nationality, they also scrutinised your ADN…., beside that, they classify you on where you are staying….I travel a lot to Japan, SKorea, Taiwan, HK and they scrutinise everything…… why are you travelling alone, how much is your regular income, where do you currently work, how long…., why are you staying in this hotel, etc etc how much in cash and how much disposable on Ccards, etc etc
Nobody is trusted, and we are being watched too!
Mike
No doubt travel will be down massively in the next 12-18 months. After that we will see the benefits of vaccines and effective treatments and the immediate threat of COVID19 will be behind us.
I agree with your thoughts that cruise lines will really struggle. In general I think there will be less willingness for people to congregate in large groups- whether it’s 5000 people on a cruise ship, packed sports and entertainment venues, or thousands of people on the main streets of Dubrovnik, Tokyo, or Rome. I predict small, local, and rural will be travel trends. My long term view on travel though is optimistic. There are enough of us that are nomads at heart. We want to learn about new places, people, customs, and foods. We want to see as much of this amazing planet as possible. And after all, as humans it’s in our nature to socialize, celebrate, and gain experiences. I hope to see you on the road in 2021.
Wendy
I think you are right about local travel in the US. Not that the US isn’t going to feel the pain of this hiatus, but people here will be so happy to get out, and the available places will likely be fewer, due to the places that weren’t able to weather the losses, that celebration travel and going out is really going to boom. Especially road trips, because public and group style travel options are likely to be down for a while too. (get the electric cars! keep oil prices down with lack of demand) But international travel is going to take a hit that will take years to recover, much like after 9-11, though I think it will recover, barring any new emerging viruses or infections.
Ellen Templar
So glad to hear that you are well recovered from this nasty virus.
I think we may have had it in mid-January as it’s been here longer
than originally thought. I will be tested for antibodies soon. Just
glad to know you are well now and back writing again. Enjoyed
this sad blog post about the future of travel. I think you have a
good take on it. So sad.
Bruce Gourlay
First let me add a word of happiness that you have recovered. Very good news.
Presently I feel very blessed that I’m stranded in Guatemala. As I watch the numbers steadily increasing I feel much safer here in the midst of this crisis.
My main concern when it is over is how difficult will it be to return to South East Asia and be reunited with my dear friends. As always I appreciate your insights and advice you share on your blog.
In the meantime I will embrace your encouragement to get out and travel, even if it’s just across the city, and go see and experience some place you’ve never been before.
Once we are able to leave our homes and do that much it shouldn’t be too long before we are able to see more of this beautiful world.
Jill
I totally agree. A post 9-11 world. A post coronavirus world. The issue I see is a lot more comprehensive. The fact that almost everyone in the world has just rolled over and allowed ‘their leaders’ to take away our FREEDOM because of this virus.
I am sick to death of hearing “if we save even 1 life it’s worth it”. NO, it is NOT! Just like 9-11, when they stole so many of our freedoms over the terrorist threat- we are NEVER going to get them back!
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I care deeply about my right to travel freely, about my right to privacy, about my right to work and support myself, about my right to decide how to take care of myself.
ALL of that has disappeared. This virus is not going away either.
What we SHOULD have done is to isolate those most vulnerable and the rest of us gone about our business. Just like the flu, which knocks some people down and for others its no big deal. Then we could’ve built up our immunity and the only people who would’ve had to worry about it would be the old and sick (compromised immune systems).
Instead, we bring the entire world’s economy to a screeching halt. That will take months, or more probably years (if ever) to come back. That hurt BILLIONS of people by wiping out their jobs, their savings, their assets.
And a vaccine? I am assuming it will be a forced vaccination program. We (should) all know there are problems with vaccines, especially when they’re rushed into production like this one will be. I do not like to be forced to do anything, especially when I am pretty sure it is not good for me. I can also predict it will mean MAJOR life restrictions if you refuse it.
Yes, I am SICK with how much freedom- and the opportunity to REALLY LIVE our lives- you’re all willing to throw away.
Ben Franklin said something like “if you throw away your freedom for a promise of safety, you don’t deserve (and won’t get) either’. It’s as true now as it ever was and always will be true. Better wake up and put a stop to all this FEAR now before it’s too late!
Alma
“What we SHOULD have done is to isolate those most vulnerable and the rest of us gone about our business. Just like the flu, which knocks some people down and for others its no big deal. Then we could’ve built up our immunity and the only people who would’ve had to worry about it would be the old and sick (compromised immune systems).”
Hard to implement. Difficult to leave elderly in nursing homes taking care of themselves. UK wanted to do it that way. Although if it were done our while cabinet, President and vice-president would be isolated and unable to leave their homes for a very long time. It sounds like A story for a movie.
Mat
I totally agree with you, Jill. The most crucial thing like freedom is being taken away from us now.. Just sit and wait and do nothing to “save” somebody.. and how many will be lost because of this passive attitude, how many will suffer from depression, how many will lose their life as it was, for professional and private reasons..? Who will count the millions of people who just want to be free and decide for themselves..?
Alexandre
In the real world:
You have some privacy rights in the country of your citizenship, depending on the laws there. Those will now likely be abridged.
You have no RIGHT to privacy in a foreign country, only as much privacy as its government chooses to allow you as a visitor.
You have no RIGHT for free international travel or to work in another country, only a discretionary temporary permission given by that government subject to conditions and limitations (called a “visa” even if it is a visa waiver).
That government decides and will decide it based on the balance between (economic) benefit of your presence and risks.
When the vaccine emerges, it may or may not be legally mandatory but I sure assume (and hope) you would not travel anywhere if you decline.
Vicki
yes, I agree. many of my trips are international but I will be wary of sitting on a plane for 17 hours, and being in a crowded airport. Until there is proven treatment and a vaccine, I don’t think I’ll be getting on a plane, especially for international travel. which is very sad since most of my international trips are visiting family and friends.
Alma
The 1918 pandemic was 102 years ago I do not agree With someone saying that many of us have grandparents older than 102 who survived that virus and are alive.
When you go to many African countries you need to show the yellow fever card. Maybe we will
Need to show the green Covid card going to some countries covid free. Regarding dormitory style hostels probably some countries will have more smallish rooms like the cabin on a train or like cubicles in an office to prevent spread of disease and maybe some kind of plexiglass barrier between seats in planes and seats in restaurants and lines will have marks where to stand 6 ft apart. All the accommodations will make travel not as cheap. The cheap places to travel will be riskier because maybe they are not Covid free and some people will not like to travel to these countries unless you are young and have no other illnesses. There might be body fever scanners at airport security, hotels, events, etc. Once we have a vaccination and everybody gets vaccinated it will be treated like going to a malaria country taking some meds before traveling for the people who has not acquired immunity. After 10 years it will all be all done until a new one comes. Young people will continue being adventurous regardless and will have short memory. The travelers who will
Lose the freedom To travel anywhere will be people who have more to lose.
Their travel will be limited to countries that offer better protection.
Matt I think you could put a team of of professionals in different fields to give advice to different areas of the travel industry like restaurants- youth hostels- hotels, travel companies on how to implement new knowledge and make changes that will bring people confidence to start travel
Again once we are out of the restrictions. Someone with travel experience, smart and creative like you and others can seize the opportunity and create new jobs for yourselves. You have to find new opportunities and create new goals
Nate
Many of us had grandparents who survived the 1918 pandemic and WOULD be older than 102 if they were still alive. All four of my grandparents are cases in point.
Christa
A very gloomy outlook. As if all the world will be known for from here on is some type of post-apocalyptic state known as post-corona virus. Yes it is scary times which is when you need more hope than ever. And many things will fail, but many will also come back. It’s almost like oh you wanted to be writer (insert any other goal or job here), good luck. I’m not saying this is how you feel, but it is what is mostly portrayed in the article.
Nate
Matt,
Thanks for this post. It’s interesting. I am an ex-pat in Europe and I wonder, when this is over, how it will affect travel within the Schengen Zone. I wonder if I will be able to travel freely between countries still when the lockdowns are done. Any thoughts?
malcolm woolley
I have read your thoughts and others remarks some good some need rethinking.Having been in the travel /airline business for over 50 years and travelled all over the world and still want to.
It reminds me of the overnights of aircraft and how little was done actually they were and are still FILTHY . Ever take a close look at the parts that we touch and eat off pretty disgusting.?This applies to cars trains buses and hotels.I think these companies are going to have to make us feel more comfortable as we use their services. Guarantee a little more than a LICK (ugh ) and a promise its clean and safe.Lets hope all us world travelers can adventure again soon.Stay Safe
Diana Winkler
Thanks for the post, Matt. Glad you are feeling better. I can’t forsee the future, but I can only speculate what I hope the changes will be. I will be traveling again soon when I get the money together. I will never take a cruise after all that has happened with the cruise ships and the passengers. I will never use 3rd party sites to book my travel. They have shown their true colors in these trying times. I hope that the airlines have learned a lesson or two from this. First, that they should have been through cleaning the darn planes in the first place and changing the air filters. I am hoping these won’t take the customers for granted and start treating us like valued customers instead of cattle. Wishful thinking, I know. I will be much more mindful of personal cleanliness when traveling. I was always was that way, but I will take it up a notch. I always used World Nomads. I am hoping they take care of those that had policies with them. I know travel insurance will be much more expensive or restrictive in the future. I am glad I did a bunch of travel in October. If we don’t ever go back to freely traveling I have those memories. If we do go back to some sense of normal, I will continue to travel and not be afraid. Life is too short to sit at home with fear.
Jobie
I am champing at the bit to get my ticket and resume a nomadic lifestyle once places open their borders again. I know this is not the mentality of most, I rarely get sick and when I do it is a mild case at best. This will be very interesting to watch as world and local economies regroup.
Ron V Smith
So while some of us are having a tough time adjusting to self-isolation measures, let’s take a moment to acknowledge the small silver lining and celebrate Mother Nature’s short breath of fresh air, unimpeded by our incessant global travel. (FD)
It’s the first time in over 50 years you can see fish and Dolphins swimming in the canals of Venice.
A friend in China tells me for the first time they have blue skies every day.
Nature is trying to reclaim a small part of its World back.
Keep up the good work Matt.
Stay safe.
Elma Malan
I had to postpone my trip to Lisbon, which was for the 26th of April, was to walk the Camino and afterwards to visit family in Prague. What has happened is bad for the human race but good for Mother Earth, also on the long run for us to realize what is precious at all times. Nothing on earth is for sure, you do not know if you will still be here the next day. At the age of 77 I still believe that no matter what , after this ban has been lifted and all is clear, I will still live out my dream to go to Portugal. That will be most probably in spring 2021. Must admit I travel on my own. Life is there to live it to the fullest, if you have survived the Covid 19, why be afraid to start traveling again. Live and walk in faith, do what you can do to be safe but fear not. In Africa we live with Malaria, TB, HIV, wild animals, crime, etc, but we do not stop living.
Thank you Matt for all your advice and thankful that you have recovered completely. Will always read your blog for the best advice.
Andrew
Matt –
First, I was sorry to hear about your illness. From your IG page it seems like you’re on the mend, which is great news!
I appreciate your perspective on this. I’m an aspiring travel blogger so this has been a weird time to be trying to grow traffic and get started. I was excited to see that you’re starting to offer a course on blogging.
One recent post I wrote was about how a recent trip to South Africa and eSwatini was put on hold due to COVID-19. Obviously a major bummer but it also gave a chance to reflect on things.
We are all very fortunate to be able to travel in normal circumstances. Situations like this help to reinforce how much gratitude we should have for the privilege of seeing the world.
Stay safe & healthy!
Victoria
I absolutely agree Matt.
I’m a travel blogger myself so I’ve chosen to write a blend of informative “what-covid19-is” posts mixed with a sprinkling of “things-to-do/see/watch/read” on my blog, while we hunker down.
On Facebook & Twitter, I’m considered to be a reliable trusted British / German expat source, so on those platforms, I’m more serious and try to balance what I share with things that would give people pleasure like what I’m doing in my garden and stuff like how we bake bread at home, and socio-political issues with real facts, figures and numbers.
In Germany, I’m known as a travel expert & I’ve been asked about my views on travel in the future. Sadly, they’re similar to yours.
Maria Calipari
A thought provoking post. One that leaves one thinking. During this times of “change” “normal” will also change. As you stated there is a pre and post, let ‘s not be mistaken, this is a wonderful thing.
Yes I too agree travel will be local. Not only because of the $ side of it, more because the uncertainty of going far from home. We’ve been lucky to enjoy our homes, relive a different travel…one of the soul and not the physical. This is a wonderful thing. Then there is the thought of I am really happy here, I have been for a month where I go doesn’t matter, near or far, what matters is that I am well and healthy.
Yep, travel will be local…each one of us will visit that little city or town, the local mountains or sea/coast line…we may walk more around the area we’ve called home and spend money here. This will give life to many businesses…how exciting will this be. We will not need to fly and if we do, we shall think of the impact it has on us and the environment…really we’ve gone this long without a plane ride…even it they are exciting ways to travel.
Thanks for the blog…
Here in Italy, I prefer slow travel…that is I shall walk from my door with my back pack and head from the north where I have been in quarantine since late Feb and walk my wonderful legs to the south…enjoy your time people
Scott McLelland
Completely agree! Also, agree that June seems very optimistic right now. I have already had a trip to 3 countries cancelled (trying to recoup the expenditure is horrible) so I am hoping for some summer adventure.
It will be interesting how many budget airlines worldwide fall due to this, making travel a bit of a minefield for a while!
Tim
Scott
Ive been checking international flights regularly as im stuck in NZ and trying to get back to the UK. It seems that most big airlines are wiping May completely but looking into June. Alot of the majors are advertising many flights per day now and this seems to be across the board of alot of big airlines.
Fingers crossed June 1st will be the start of international travel again but with pre-cautions.
Claudia
Thank you for offering your insight, Matt. I was very interested in what you have to say because I see you as an authority on all things travel. I appreciate you being willing to offer your perspective, good, bad or indifferent. You are offering your honest opinion and not out to sugar coat things. We can’t put our head in the sand. I think it’s best to expect the worst and hope for the best! Thank you!
Shanna Schultz
I work in the airline industry that as you have pointed out has been so completely devastated by this. After 9/11, we were down for a few weeks. This is going to take a lot longer.
I have taken an extended leave because no one if flying. It was eerie, those last couple days at work post virus, working in a big international airport that just weeks before had been full with travelers that was now just a ghost town.
It is going to take a while, but I have faith that things will recover and find a new point of balance, a “new normal” as we have been saying to much more lately. I know this because humans have an innate need to explore and go places. I still have my fingers crossed for travel plans late this summer, and if we have the opportunity, we will let go of our fear and go. Unfortunately, this virus is here to stay, and we will have to learn to live with it.
In the meantime, I am going to try to take advantage of this vacuum in the travel sphere(where some folks may be getting out of the game), and the extra time that I have now to up my blogging game and really start taking my blog seriously (thanks in big part to your blogging course, which I am going to go through again).
Thanks for this realistic reflection of what is to come (and for pointing out that it may not be all bad).
Florin
People will start to travel right after a vaccine will be available on a large scale. Another question to answer id how bad the economical crisis will affect the revenues of potential tourists. Anyway, we should expect that tourism will return at pre-pandemic levels in a minimum of 2 years.
Nick Wheatley
Hey Matt,
Great to read your take on the current situation.
My wife and I are living in Vietnam and have spent much of the last 3 years traveling the world.
While I agree the travel industry is going to take a big hit (we also run a travel blog and our traffic is down ~75%), I think your predictions are a bit bleak.
The smart thing to do might be keeping all the borders closed, but I just don’t think that is the world we live in. Too many countries now rely heavily on tourism – especially here in SE Asia. Opening the borders will become an economic necessity for many governments.
You can see it here in Vietnam as well as in the USA – people are eager to get back to things as they were before. Of course, there won’t be much in the way of international travel this summer, but I think by fall countries will have a concrete strategy for managing COVID-19. Temperature checks at the airport or even rapid testing will probably be common, but I don’t see the world remaining shut for more than a few months.
I do agree that the recession will cause a reduction in travel, but it will be closer to post-2008 levels.
And, yeah, I think the Cruise industry is in for a rough decade or so.
Anyways, just my $0.02.
Safe Travels!
Nick
Sumit Mukherjee
Thanks for sharing your insights on travel post Coronavirus, matt. But, I think the industry will still need travel bloggers and freelance writers, as they are the ones who’ll help instill confidence in the minds of tourists that they can still think of exploring the world. I think international tourism will take a hit in the next couple of years, but will gradually recover post 2023. As far as domestic travel is concerned, it will pick pace once this COVID comes under control.
CJ
Thank you Matt for sharing your insights on the travel post about how Coronavirus will affect travel. I think that commercial travel will still take place because we still have to import and export goods through commercial transportation like planes. I also think that concerning travel to another place for like a trip will be put on hold for a while so the virus won´t spread.
Jeremy Cheung
For anyone trying to keep up with the ever changing travel restrictions, I found a site that cleanly lays out restrictions for the country you are going to and any impacts for you coming home – https://covidtravelrestrictions.com/